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A simple tool for the early prediction of the cyanobacteria Nodularia spumigena bloom biomass in the Gulf of Finland

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Author(s): Madis-Jaak Lilove | Jaan Laanemet

Journal: Oceanologia
ISSN 0078-3234

Volume: 48;
Issue: S;
Start page: 213;
Date: 2006;
Original page

Keywords: Harmful algal blooms | Nodularia spumigena | Fuzzy logic model | Gulf of Finland

ABSTRACT
A fuzzy logic model for predicting the maximum biomass of thetoxic cyanobacteria Nodularia spumigena bloom in the Gulf ofFinland is suggested. The model bloom biomass depends on thephosphate conditions up to 15 June, including the excess phosphateleft over after the spring bloom and on the phosphate inputsparameterised by wind mixing and upwelling from 1 May to 15 June.The surface layer temperature, set to vary from 14 to 23ÂșC,is regarded as a bloom regulating parameter. The model simulationsshowed that the predicted N. spumigena biomasses differ markedlyfrom year to year and clearly depend on phosphate conditionsup to 15 June.
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